CFA Level 1 — Portfolio Management
Intuition-First Study Guide · Readings 83–88
Portfolio Risk and Return: Part I
Risk Aversion and Utility
Most investors are risk-averse — given two investments with identical expected returns, they choose the one with lower risk. This doesn't mean they avoid risk entirely; they simply demand compensation (higher expected return) for bearing it.
A risk-seeking investor prefers more risk for the same return (rare in finance). A risk-neutral investor cares only about expected return, regardless of risk.
Indifference Curves
An indifference curve plots all risk-return combinations that give an investor equal utility (satisfaction). For risk-averse investors, these curves slope upward — to accept more risk, you need more return.
The optimal portfolio is found where the investor's indifference curve is tangent to the capital allocation line (CAL). A less risk-averse investor will hold more of the risky portfolio; a more risk-averse investor will hold more of the risk-free asset.
Variance, Covariance, and Correlation
Risk is measured by variance (or its square root, standard deviation). For a sample of T returns:
Covariance measures how two assets move together. Correlation standardises covariance between –1 and +1:
| Correlation Value | Meaning | Diversification Benefit |
|---|---|---|
| ρ = +1 | Move perfectly together | None — risk is just a weighted average |
| ρ = 0 | No linear relationship | Substantial risk reduction |
| ρ = –1 | Move perfectly opposite | Maximum — risk can be eliminated entirely |
Two-Asset Portfolio Risk Critical
ρ = 0.5: σ² = 0.25(0.0625) + 0.25(0.0324) + 2(0.5)(0.5)(0.5)(0.25)(0.18) = 0.034975 → σ = 18.70%.
ρ = 0: σ² = 0.25(0.0625) + 0.25(0.0324) = 0.023725 → σ = 15.40%.
Notice: Lower correlation → lower portfolio risk. This is the diversification benefit in action.
The Efficient Frontier
The minimum-variance frontier is the set of portfolios with the lowest risk for each level of return. The global minimum-variance portfolio sits at the leftmost point. The efficient frontier is the upper portion — no rational investor chooses a portfolio below it.
The Capital Allocation Line (CAL)
Combining a risk-free asset with a risky portfolio produces a straight line on a risk-return graph — the CAL. This works because the risk-free asset has zero standard deviation and zero correlation with everything.
If you invest 60% in the risky portfolio (σ = 20%) and 40% in the risk-free asset, your portfolio's risk is simply 0.60 × 20% = 12%.
σp = 0.60 × 8% = 4.8%
The risk-free asset contributes zero risk, so portfolio risk is just the weight times the risky asset's risk.
Portfolio Risk and Return: Part II
Capital Market Line (CML)
Under the assumption that all investors have homogeneous expectations (same forecasts for risk, return, correlations), there's one optimal risky portfolio everyone holds — the market portfolio. The CAL drawn from the risk-free rate through this market portfolio is the Capital Market Line.
The slope of the CML is the market price of risk: the extra return per unit of total risk. Only efficient portfolios (combinations of the risk-free asset and the market portfolio) plot on the CML.
Systematic vs. Unsystematic Risk Critical
Systematic (Market) Risk
Caused by macro factors (GDP, interest rates, inflation). Cannot be diversified away. Rewarded with higher expected return. Measured by beta.
Unsystematic (Firm-Specific) Risk
Caused by company-specific factors (lawsuits, management changes). Can be diversified away for free. Not rewarded — the market doesn't pay you for risk you can eliminate.
Beta — The Measure of Systematic Risk Formula
| Beta Value | Interpretation |
|---|---|
| β = 1.0 | Same systematic risk as the market |
| β > 1.0 | More volatile than the market (aggressive) |
| β < 1.0 | Less volatile than the market (defensive) |
| β = 0 | Uncorrelated with the market (e.g., risk-free asset) |
Alternatively: if Cov(A,M) = 0.048, then β = 0.048 / 0.04 = 1.2. Know both methods.
The CAPM and Security Market Line (SML) Critical
This is the Capital Asset Pricing Model. It says every security's required return equals the risk-free rate plus a beta-adjusted market risk premium. The SML plots this relationship with beta on the x-axis.
CML
X-axis = Total risk (σ). Only efficient portfolios plot on it. Shows combinations of the risk-free asset + market portfolio.
SML
X-axis = Systematic risk (β). All securities and portfolios (efficient or not) plot on it in equilibrium.
Expected return: (30 – 25 + 1)/25 = 24%
Since 24% > 16.8%, the stock plots above the SML → it is undervalued → buy it. Positive alpha = expected return exceeds required return.
Performance Measures
| Measure | Formula | Risk Type Used | When to Use |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sharpe Ratio | \(\frac{R_P - R_f}{\sigma_P}\) | Total risk (σ) | Single manager / total portfolio |
| Treynor Measure | \(\frac{R_P - R_f}{\beta_P}\) | Systematic risk (β) | Well-diversified portfolio / multi-manager |
| Jensen's Alpha | \(R_P - [R_f + \beta_P(R_M - R_f)]\) | Systematic risk (β) | Excess return above SML |
| M-squared | \(R_f + \frac{\sigma_M}{\sigma_P}(R_P - R_f)\) | Total risk (σ) | Leveraged comparison to market |
Portfolio Management: An Overview
The Portfolio Perspective
The portfolio perspective means evaluating every investment by its contribution to the portfolio's risk and return — not in isolation. An investor who holds all wealth in one stock is not taking the portfolio perspective, because they bear unsystematic risk that is not compensated.
The diversification ratio = portfolio σ ÷ average individual σ. A ratio of 0.72 means the portfolio captures only 72% of the average stock's risk — a 28% risk reduction from diversification. A ratio of 1.0 means no diversification benefit.
The Three-Step Portfolio Management Process
| Step | Name | Key Activities |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Planning | Analyse client objectives, constraints, risk tolerance → produce the Investment Policy Statement (IPS) |
| 2 | Execution | Top-down (macro → asset allocation) and bottom-up (security analysis → individual picks) |
| 3 | Feedback | Monitor, rebalance, measure performance vs. the IPS benchmark |
Types of Investors
| Investor Type | Risk Tolerance | Time Horizon | Liquidity Needs | Income Needs |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Individuals | Varies | Varies | Varies | Varies |
| Banks | Low | Short | High | Pay interest |
| Endowments | High | Long | Low | Spending level |
| Insurance (Life) | Low | Long | High | Low |
| Insurance (P&C) | Low | Short | High | Low |
| DB Pension | High | Long | Low | Depends on age |
Defined Benefit vs. Defined Contribution
Defined Benefit (DB)
Employer promises a specific retirement income → employer bears investment risk. Must manage assets vs. liabilities.
Defined Contribution (DC)
Employer contributes a set amount each period → employee bears investment risk. No promise about final value.
Pooled Investments
Open-end mutual funds issue/redeem shares at NAV. Closed-end funds trade on exchanges at market-determined prices (can trade at premium or discount to NAV). ETFs trade like stocks with low fees but incur brokerage costs. Hedge funds are for accredited investors, use leverage and derivatives, and typically charge "2 and 20" (2% management + 20% of profits).
Basics of Portfolio Planning and Construction
The Investment Policy Statement (IPS)
The IPS is the starting point of portfolio management. It's a written plan documenting the investor's objectives and constraints, ensuring discipline and realistic expectations.
The IPS forces the conversation: "What do you want, what can you handle, and what are your limits?" Without this document, managers make assumptions, investors have unrealistic expectations, and nobody has a benchmark to measure success against.
Major IPS Components
Description of client · Statement of purpose · Duties & responsibilities · Procedures for updates · Investment objectives (risk & return) · Investment constraints · Investment guidelines · Performance evaluation · Appendices (strategic asset allocation, rebalancing policy).
Risk and Return Objectives
| Type | Absolute Example | Relative Example |
|---|---|---|
| Risk | "No loss greater than 10% in any year" | "Returns within 2% of FTSE return" |
| Return | "At least 6% per annum nominal" | "Exceed S&P 500 by 2% per year" |
Willingness vs. Ability to Take Risk Exam Favorite
Willingness = psychological (personality, beliefs, comfort). Ability = financial (wealth, time horizon, income stability, liabilities).
The Five Investment Constraints — "TTLLU" Critical
| Constraint | Description | Impact on Portfolio |
|---|---|---|
| Time horizon | Period until funds are needed | Longer → more risk/illiquidity tolerable |
| Tax situation | Tax rates, tax-deferred accounts | May prefer tax-free bonds, capital gains over income |
| Liquidity | Need for spendable cash | High needs → more bonds/cash, avoid illiquid assets |
| Legal/Regulatory | Trust laws, insider trading rules | May restrict certain asset types or concentrations |
| Unique circumstances | Ethical, religious, ESG preferences | May exclude sectors (tobacco, gambling) or countries |
Strategic vs. Tactical Asset Allocation
Strategic asset allocation is the long-term baseline mix (e.g., 60% equity, 30% bonds, 10% alternatives) derived from the IPS objectives and asset class characteristics. Tactical asset allocation involves short-term deviations to exploit perceived opportunities.
A core-satellite approach puts the majority (core) in passive index funds and a smaller portion (satellite) in active strategies. This reduces excessive trading, offsetting positions, and unintended tax consequences.
ESG Considerations
Approaches include negative screening (exclude certain companies), positive screening (invest in ESG leaders), thematic investing, impact investing, and active ownership. ESG constraints may decrease returns (smaller universe) but may also increase returns (avoiding ESG-related risks). Benchmark choice must reflect the constrained universe.
The Behavioral Biases of Individuals
Cognitive Errors vs. Emotional Biases
Cognitive Errors
From faulty reasoning or information processing. Can be corrected with better information, education, or training. Think of these as "bugs in the software."
Emotional Biases
From feelings, impulses, or intuition. Difficult to correct — often must be accommodated rather than eliminated. Think of these as "features of the hardware."
Cognitive Errors: Belief Perseverance
| Bias | What Happens | Example | Portfolio Impact |
|---|---|---|---|
| Conservatism | Fail to update views with new info | Ignoring a central bank tightening signal | Hold investments too long; miss opportunities |
| Confirmation | Seek info that confirms existing beliefs | Only reading bullish analyst reports on a stock you own | Over-concentration; under-diversification |
| Representativeness | Classify based on similarity to a stereotype | "This stock was a growth stock last year, so it must still be" | Buy/sell based on patterns, not fundamentals |
| Illusion of control | Believe you can influence uncontrollable outcomes | Over-trading in your employer's stock | Inadequate diversification |
| Hindsight | "I knew it all along" after the fact | Claiming you predicted a market crash — after it happened | Overconfidence in predictive ability |
Cognitive Errors: Information Processing
| Bias | What Happens | Example |
|---|---|---|
| Anchoring | Over-rely on an initial number | Estimating EPS based on last quarter's figure, adjusting insufficiently |
| Mental accounting | Treat money differently based on source/account | Gambling with "found money" (bonus) but being conservative with savings |
| Framing | Decision changes depending on how info is presented | Choosing risk when losses are framed, choosing certainty when gains are framed |
| Availability | Overweight easily recalled information | Buying stocks advertised heavily; ignoring historical data |
Emotional Biases Critical
| Bias | What Happens | Portfolio Consequence |
|---|---|---|
| Loss aversion | Feel losses more than equivalent gains | Sell winners too early (lock in gains); hold losers too long (avoid realising losses). Take excessive risk after losses to "get back to even." |
| Overconfidence | Overestimate own ability | Under-diversify, trade too much, underestimate risk |
| Self-control | Favour short-term gratification | Insufficient savings; take too much risk to compensate |
| Status quo | Resist change; stick with current allocation | Hold inappropriate portfolios; miss better alternatives |
| Endowment | Value assets more because you own them | Refuse to sell inherited stocks; fail to diversify |
| Regret aversion | Fear of making wrong decision causes inaction | Excess conservatism; herding (follow the crowd to avoid blame) |
Behavioral Biases in Markets
The value/growth anomaly may partly reflect behavioral factors like the halo effect (a form of representativeness where good company characteristics are extended to "good stock" conclusions, overvaluing growth stocks). Home bias reflects investors over-weighting domestic stocks, possibly from familiarity or availability bias. Herding during bubbles amplifies overconfidence and regret aversion. Behavioral finance has not fully explained bubbles and crashes but identifies contributing biases.
Introduction to Risk Management
What Risk Management Actually Is
Risk management is the process of: (1) identifying the organisation's risk tolerance, (2) identifying and measuring its risks, and (3) modifying and monitoring those risks. The goal is not to minimise or eliminate all risks. The goal is to select the optimal bundle of risks that maximises expected returns given the organisation's tolerance.
Risk Management Framework
A comprehensive framework includes: identifying and measuring existing risks → determining overall risk tolerance → establishing risk governance processes → managing/mitigating risks to achieve the optimal bundle → monitoring exposures over time → communicating across the organisation → performing strategic risk analysis.
Risk Governance
Risk governance is determined at the enterprise level by senior management. It sets risk tolerance, the optimal risk exposure strategy, and oversight of the risk management function. A risk management committee integrates risks across business units.
Risk Tolerance and Risk Budgeting
Risk tolerance is the overall amount of risk the organisation will accept. Risk budgeting allocates that total risk across assets/investments based on their risk characteristics and how they combine. The budget can use metrics like portfolio beta, VaR, duration, or returns variance.
Financial vs. Non-Financial Risks
| Category | Risk Type | Description |
|---|---|---|
| Financial | Credit risk | Counterparty fails to honour obligations |
| Liquidity risk | Forced to sell at below fair value | |
| Market risk | Adverse moves in prices, rates, currencies | |
| Non-Financial | Operational risk | Human error, systems failures, cyber risk |
| Solvency risk | Running out of cash to continue operating | |
| Regulatory risk | Changes in regulations impose new costs | |
| Legal risk | Exposure to lawsuits or contract disputes | |
| Model / Tail risk | Models are wrong; extreme events more likely than assumed |
Risk Measures
| Measure | What It Measures | Used For |
|---|---|---|
| Standard deviation | Volatility of returns | General asset risk (may miss tail risk) |
| Beta | Systematic risk relative to market | Equity portfolios |
| Duration | Sensitivity to interest rate changes | Bond portfolios |
| Delta, Gamma, Vega, Rho | Sensitivity to various factors | Derivatives positions |
| VaR | Maximum loss at a given confidence level | Tail risk estimation |
| Conditional VaR | Expected loss beyond the VaR threshold | Worst-case tail risk |
Methods of Risk Modification Exam Favorite
| Method | How It Works | Example |
|---|---|---|
| Avoid/Prevent | Don't engage in the risky activity | Not investing in a politically unstable country |
| Accept (Self-insure) | Bear the risk; possibly set up reserves | Accepting currency risk on small foreign positions |
| Transfer | Pay someone else to bear the risk | Buying insurance, surety bonds, fidelity bonds |
| Shift | Change the distribution of outcomes with derivatives | Buying puts (floor), selling calls (give up upside), forwards, swaps |
Individual Risk Management
Individuals face mortality risk (dying before providing for dependents — addressed with life insurance), longevity risk (outliving assets — addressed with lifetime annuities), and health expense risk (addressed with health insurance). The framework is the same: identify risks, determine tolerance, choose which to bear, transfer, or shift.
Master Formula Sheet — All 6 Readings
| Formula | Description | Reading |
|---|---|---|
| \(s^2 = \frac{\sum(R_t - \bar{R})^2}{T-1}\) | Sample variance of returns | 83 |
| \(\rho_{1,2} = \frac{Cov(R_1,R_2)}{\sigma_1 \sigma_2}\) | Correlation from covariance | 83 |
| \(\sigma_P = \sqrt{w_1^2\sigma_1^2 + w_2^2\sigma_2^2 + 2w_1w_2\rho_{12}\sigma_1\sigma_2}\) | Two-asset portfolio std dev | 83 |
| \(\sigma_P = w_A \sigma_A\) (with risk-free) | Risk of portfolio with risk-free asset | 83 |
| \(E(R_P) = R_f + \frac{E(R_M)-R_f}{\sigma_M}\sigma_P\) | Capital Market Line (CML) | 84 |
| \(\beta_i = \frac{Cov(R_i,R_M)}{\sigma_M^2} = \frac{\rho_{i,M}\sigma_i}{\sigma_M}\) | Beta (systematic risk measure) | 84 |
| \(E(R_i) = R_f + \beta_i[E(R_M) - R_f]\) | CAPM / Security Market Line | 84 |
| \(\text{Sharpe} = \frac{R_P - R_f}{\sigma_P}\) | Excess return per unit of total risk | 84 |
| \(\text{Treynor} = \frac{R_P - R_f}{\beta_P}\) | Excess return per unit of systematic risk | 84 |
| \(\alpha_P = R_P - [R_f + \beta_P(R_M - R_f)]\) | Jensen's alpha | 84 |
| \(M^2 = R_f + \frac{\sigma_M}{\sigma_P}(R_P - R_f)\) | M-squared measure | 84 |
| \(\text{Diversification Ratio} = \frac{\sigma_\text{portfolio}}{\bar\sigma_\text{individual}}\) | Measure of diversification benefit | 85 |